Climate Resilience · By the UpyaChat team · · 8 min read
El Niño 2026: 8 things to do now to protect your farm
El Niño is strengthening in 2026 and can bring hotter temperatures, rainfall deficits, irregular rainy seasons, or intense rainfall depending on the region. These eight steps help farmers prepare before the risk becomes a crisis.
1. Find out what El Niño could mean in your area
El Niño does not automatically mean drought. In some regions it increases the risk of below-average rainfall. In others it can bring heavier rain. Elsewhere, the main problem may be a late, poorly distributed, or unusually short rainy season.
Before changing your technical plan, look for forecasts that cover your region and crop season. Make decisions based on what El Niño is expected to do locally, not simply on the fact that it is arriving.
- Should you expect a drier, hotter, or wetter season?
- Could the rainy season start late or become more irregular?
- Which crop stages and periods carry the greatest risk?
2. Secure water before you run short
If drier conditions are likely, make a simple water balance now. Estimate how much water you can really access during the next campaign and compare it with the needs of the crops you plan to grow.
Do not plan a larger irrigated area than your reserves can reasonably support. If water may be limited, adapting the area or crop choice before sowing is safer than discovering the shortfall halfway through the season.
- Check wells, boreholes, ponds, and reservoirs.
- Inspect canals, pumps, irrigation lines, and possible leaks.
- Estimate your capacity to collect and store rainwater.
- Match planned crop water demand with reliable supply, not with the best-case scenario.
3. Prepare the soil to keep every millimetre of rain
In a dry year, receiving rain is not enough. The water must enter the soil and remain available in the root zone. Soil cover and good structure help reduce evaporation, runoff, and erosion.
A covered, well-structured soil acts like a reservoir. The goal is not only to receive water, but to lose as little of it as possible.
- Keep suitable crop residues on the surface.
- Use mulch and avoid leaving soil bare unnecessarily.
- Improve infiltration and limit runoff and erosion.
- Avoid unnecessary traffic and tillage that can dry or compact the soil.
4. Think about planting dates now
An irregular rainy season increases the risk of a false start. A first rain may trigger germination and then be followed by a long dry spell. Before sowing, look beyond the last rainfall event.
When uncertainty is high, it may be sensible to spread seed and planting dates across the season rather than committing the whole farm at once, provided this fits your system.
- Check soil moisture, not only rainfall totals.
- Review rainfall from previous days and forecasts for the days ahead.
- Consider the crop’s water needs during emergence.
- Avoid committing all seed and land before the season has shown a reliable start.
5. Secure seed and prepare a backup plan
Ask now what you will do if the first planting fails. Keeping a small reserve of seed can prevent a poor start to the rainy season from putting the entire campaign at risk.
The aim is not necessarily to change your production system. It is to keep several options open while the season remains uncertain.
- Keep a practical reserve of seed for replanting.
- Consider shorter-cycle varieties where they are suitable.
- Look for varieties adapted to water stress or high temperatures.
- Identify a crop that can be planted later if the first window is missed.
- Reduce the area of a crop that is especially demanding of water when necessary.
6. Prepare drainage if heavy rain is possible
In some regions, El Niño can increase the risk of very heavy rainfall. Do not wait for the first flood to check whether water can leave the field safely.
The objective is simple: let excess water leave without carrying soil, seed, inputs, or stored feed with it.
- Clean drains and ditches and clear water outlets.
- Identify low areas and places that are vulnerable to erosion.
- Check culverts, crossings, and flow paths before the season.
- Protect sensitive areas and maintain a safe overflow route.
- Store seed, fertilizer, and livestock feed above likely flood levels.
7. Prepare your livestock as well
The effects of drought on livestock often begin before animals show obvious weakness. Before the risk period, estimate how many days of feed and water you can guarantee and identify the most vulnerable animals.
If reserves are insufficient, solutions are much easier to arrange now than in the middle of a shortage.
- Build or secure forage and feed stocks.
- Preserve suitable crop residues for animal feed.
- Check water points and plan alternative sources.
- Provide shade and protect animals from heat stress.
- Prepare a specific plan for young, pregnant, lactating, or weak animals.
8. Keep a financial buffer
An uncertain climate season is also an economic risk. Where possible, avoid committing all your resources at the start of the campaign to expenses that assume maximum yields.
Your objective is not only to protect yield. It is also to protect the continuity of the farm when the season requires an unexpected response.
- Keep cash available for replanting.
- Allow for additional irrigation or repairs.
- Plan for feed purchases if pasture or crop residues fail.
- Keep room for disease or pest responses if conditions change.
- Reserve funds for a change in planting or harvest timing.
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